From Safehaven.com:
The VIX is calculated by averaging S&P 100 Stock Index at-the-money put and call implied volatilities. The availability of the index enables investors to make more informed investment decisions. Going over the VIX history along with the S&P 100 OEX index it is quite evident that all of the spikes in volatility accompanied market downturns and significant events that affected the market.
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From Safehaven.com:
After reaching its 1370 projection, the SPX started a consolidation process — which is normal. The stock market progresses through a process of accumulation-uptrends, distribution-downtrends, which repeats itself continuously in various degrees over various time frames. Elliott came to the same conclusion when he identified corrective and impulse patterns as the basic frame work of the market. Point & Figure charts give us a much clearer picture of this process than bar charts. In addition, they have the capacity to tell us how much energy is stored in these accumulation and distribution phases, and how far the following move is likely to carry.
Based on a conservative count taken across the 2009 base, the top of the bull market could be as low as 1365, or substantially higher if the liberal count prevails.
Since the index has already reached 1370, we know that the conservative count has been filled, and that we could be at a bull market top. Are we done? Probably not! As the trend develops, there are periods of consolidation which are known as re-accumulation or re-distribution phases that are very helpful at projecting the extent of the next move. Several of these past patterns point to another push higher before we get to the end of the current intermediate trend. I am going to assume that they are correct and that the consolidation which is underway is only a precursor of the next uptrend.
Let’s go to the charts and see if we can find some justification for this premise.
From Safehaven.com:
For the past two weeks, I have stressed that oil, gold, and the dollar were reaching significant Point & Figure targets. It turned out that these projections were only off by a fraction. Here were the projections, the actual price reached, and Friday’s closes.
Oil (WTIC) Gold (GLD) Dollar Projections 115 153-154 74 (P&F counts) 154-156 Reversal price: 114.88 (5/2) 153.61 (5/2) 72.69 (5/4) Price on 5/6 97.33 (lo 94.77) 145.30 (lo 143.47) 74.92 (hi 74.93) I also had a target of 1370 for the SPX. The high on 5/2 was 170.58, before the correction started. So far, the low for the decline has been 1329.17, and it closed the week at 1340.20.
I am supplying these figures for a couple of reasons: first, to illustrate the immense value of using P&F analysis, and second, to show that these wild price swings may indicate that the stock market is at an important juncture.
Based on the accumulation pattern that was created during the correction into mid-March, there are higher potential P&F targets for the SPX. Also, that correction formed a H&S configuration which has been validated by a clear break-out above the neck line. The normal projection for this H&S pattern closely matches the more liberal count taken across the P&F base.
The pull-back which occurred last week could simply be a deeper than normal return to the H&S neck line. However, the severe corrections in commodities suggest that this is more than a minor consolidation, and it creates some doubt about the ability of the SPX to reach its higher targets.
By the same token, we will see that sentiment is still not suggesting that we are at an important top. This leaves us with a greater than normal challenge to determine the future course of the market. Let’s turn to the charts and see if we can derive some technical clues which will clarify its current position.
From Safehaven.com:
Last week, some indices appear to have reached a critical time frame. The dollar may have come to the end of its intermediate decline in what appears to be a selling climax characterized by the heaviest selling volume in five months. Gold also displayed buying climax characteristics which could put an end to its rally and trigger a correction. Both indices exceeded the Point & Figure projections that I had given by a small margin.
Equity indices, or the other hand, do not seem to be as vulnerable yet to an important reversal, but a short-term correction could come as early as Monday. Both the SPX and QQQ are severely overbought on the short-term, with extensive deceleration in their momentum indicators and substantial divergence showing in the breadth oscillators. Combine that with a minor cycle bottoming over the next couple of days, and you have a high probability recipe for a near-term correction. The SPX, however, has not reached its target for this phase of the move, and this may turn out to be only a breather before climbing the next few points to fill its P&F projection of 1370.
From Safehaven.com:
The SPX and QQQ have completed a short intermediate-term correction in what appears to be a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern and, after completing the right shoulder on Monday morning, the indices rocketed upward. If the pattern is confirmed as valid by future action, the traditional measurement of the break-out move calls for a minimum target of about 1425 for the SPX, and one of 62.50 for the QQQ. Since these projections pretty much coincide with the ones that I derive from the Point & Figure bases for the two indices, it increases the odds of their being valid.
From Safehaven.com:
It is my belief that the weakness seen in the Baltic Dry Index is confirming my conclusions that the rallies out of the 2009 lows are likely counter-trend bear market affairs and not a result of strong fundamental growth nor of a sustained “recovery.”
When Tim Wood speaks, you should listen.
From Safehaven.com:
More importantly notice the two green boxes. The first is the flash crash of 2010. Notice how the VIX makes new lows while the Skew index makes new highs. Then once the market place reacts to falling asset prices, the VIX rises while the Skew Index falls. Now look at the next green box. The same exact divergence is occurring. Last month’s selloff is even reflected.
From PhysOrg.com:
“Instead of trying to make perfect decisions based on imperfect information, the cell plays the odds with an important twist: it hedges its bets,” Simpson said. “Sure, most of the cells will place bets on the likely winner, but an important few will put their money on the long shot.”
From Safehaven.com:
There is a good possibility that the low of the correction from 1339 has now been seen. However, a number of technical factors are suggesting that a pull-back will be needed before we can move higher. We’ll examine these in our analysis, but one of them is the fact that the QQQ may have suffered a minor set-back as a result of GOOG’s weakness on Friday and may need a small period of recuperation. Should the weakness exceed more than a few points, it could alter the scenario.
From ReadTheTicker.com:
The originator of this method is from the writings of Richard D Wyckoff. (1873-1934)
At the age of 15-years old, he became a stock runner, scurrying back and forth on Wall Street. At age 25, he opened his own brokerage office which gave him close contact with several the most important and influential traders Wall Street has ever seen. He studied the market operations of Jay Gould, Jesse Livermore, J.P. Morgan, Andrew Carnegie, along with many others, all in an effort to develop his own approach to the market. These were men who studied the market, understood how and why it moved, and profited from it. Wyckoff methods were successfully applied in newsletter called ‘The Magazine of WallStreet’ (known to have 200,000 subscribers in the 1920’s). The newsletter became the darling of Wall Street traders.
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